Craps Chance Of Winning
1. It is easier to win with one good bet. Making too many bets(covering too many numbers) makes it near impossible for long term success. That is how they get us with all the different bets available and the ole ugly(7) is just too powerful. Much easier to recover after losing just one bet per shooter than say 3-6 bets.
2. That one good bet for me is the pass-odds bet.
3. Start out with small odds and progress to increasing the odds bet after the shooter makes a point.
**Lately have been winning with just betting $5 passline and then $10 odds to start the new shooter. IF he makes his first point, then $20 odds for the remainder of his hand and sometimes there will be stringers where a shooter makes multiple points that will make good money($100+) even with these small bets. $500 day session bankroll.**
4. Do not lean into the punch, if the table is cold, get off and out. Can always switch tables or casinos, or take a break if only one table at one casino is available. That table can stay cold for hours..
5. Play conservative with minimal money at risk to start the new shooter. And plenty of bankroll per day session, do not go underfunded. Remember we are competing with the unlimited casino bankroll and we have to attempt to survive the swings.
6. Most players are afraid of losing, do not be afraid of winning either. Get more money out there on the good shooters with that one good bet. Have had my share of losing, the above marked ** has got me winning again..
The dice game craps is played as follows: The player throws 2 dice, and if the sum is 7 or 11, he/she wins. If the sum is 2, 3, or 12, he/she loses. If the sum is anything else, then he/she continues throwing until that number appears again, or throws a 7, where the game ends in a loss. What I do know is that P(7) = 6 / 36, P(11) = 2 / 36. Casinos in Las Vegas for example will allow players to wager 10x, 50x and even 100x odds bets. The rule of thumb is this: The more money you bet on the odds bet, the lower the house edge becomes in your overall pass/come bet that you originally made. The odds bet itself pays out true odds, meaning there is a 0% (yes zero) house edge.
I know I've definitely gotten overzealous at a coolish table and lost a big part of the bankroll by trying to play 2-3 points with max odds right off the bat. Your approach is much more reasonable, so I may borrow some of your approach.
Thanks for sharing your psychology of craps. I think you could easily play this strategy at a $10 craps table with a $500 session bankroll, unless you just got an absolutely frigid table (but with your discipline, you'd still be gone well before losing $500 I think).
Getting back to pass-odds only, another way I play, and I have had good overall results with it is starting with single odds, then up the odds bet one unit as each box number is rolled after the point is established.
Then start anew on each new point sequence. Example: Start with $5 pass and then a 4 is the point so $5 odds. Then a 9 is rolled, so odds bet goes to $10, then a 6 is rolled so odds bet goes to $15, 3 is rolled so no change, then he makes the point 4. Then start anew on the next point sequence with single odds on the new point and do the same sequence. I do stop at $50 odds playing with a $500 session bankroll. My theory is that the longer the roll continues after the point is established the greater the likelihood of the point being made. Too many Seven outs soon after the point is established so not much money at risk during this time. Many times I have a good win with just one point being made where the shooter rolls several box numbers and my odds bet is up to $25 or more range, then on the second point he sevens out with only single odds. It is more fun to play this way than my original post, and the results have been very similarly positive over multiple sessions.
Unfortunately, you never know when a 'good' shooter is starting, nor do you know when a table might turn from cold to hot, or vice-versa. I think your system is a good way to play craps longer without those huge swings that you see when playing max odds and a come bet or two. I think it would definitely be a good way to get your feet wet at a table and get a feel for how the table is going, then adjust accordingly. Even though there's no mathematical reason for it, sometimes you do get those hot tables, so if you got there you could start playing max odds pretty quickly, and as long as you're successful with that, start throwing a come bet out there so you can cover 2 numbers. To extend your strategy, you could even bet less than full odds on the come bet until it paid off, if you felt that was appropriate. I'd say once you're playing max odds, stick with it though, in case your come bet hits and your pass line bet doesn't.
I know I've definitely gotten overzealous at a coolish table and lost a big part of the bankroll by trying to play 2-3 points with max odds right off the bat. Your approach is much more reasonable, so I may borrow some of your approach.
Thanks for sharing your psychology of craps. I think you could easily play this strategy at a $10 craps table with a $500 session bankroll, unless you just got an absolutely frigid table (but with your discipline, you'd still be gone well before losing $500 I think).
As you stated, and then forgot, there is no such thing as how a table is going, only how it has gone.My theory is that the longer the roll continues after the point is established the greater the likelihood of the point being made.
dwm... you started a thread 'Pass-Odds only Scheme'August 28th, 2010 HERE
Best Chance Of Winning Craps
You said this:'My theory is that the longer the roll continues post-point, the more likelihood of making the point'
Then nope27 (by simulation) and boymimbo (by math formula-very nice) showed why your theory is WRONG.
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There is no difference. The longer the roll continues for the current point it favors neither side.Look again at that thread.
I still like the idea of progressing the odds bet, it adds variance without adding expected loss, meaning it only requires a little bit of good luck to over come the low house edge and produce a net win. Of course at the same time it can require a much larger bankroll.
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*$5 pass and $10 odds AND place the sister number of the point at $10,12. Only two bets to start the new shooter. If more than one point is made by the shooter, continue to bet the point via pass-odds and the sister place until bets bet up to $20,24 level and will sometimes have across action if several points are made.
Example: Say a 6 is the first point so $10 odds on the 6 and $12 place the 8. And he makes the point 6, and 8 is the second point, place bet 6 is now $24 and the 8 will have $20 odds. Then say the 8 point is made and 9 is the new point so $10 odds on the 9 and $10 place bet on the sister 5. So will now have $24 on 6 and 8 and $10 9 and $10 odds on the 5, etc.
Conservative, but gets aggressive if the roll continues.
$5 pass then $20 odds to start the betting. If a shooter fails to make at least one point, then up one unit on the odds bet and keep doing this negative progression on consecutive losses until get a point winner. When get a win on the point, return to $20 odds. Max odds bet is $50 and if lose that one then start all over at $20 odds. $600 day session bankroll.
Example: $5 pass then $20 odds on the new shooter. Shooter does not make a point. Now $25 odds on the next shooter, and he again fails to make a point, so next odds bet on the third shooter is $30 odds and he makes the point. Return to $20 odds on the next point sequence. He now sevens out, so next shooter is again at $20 odds as you won on the prior shooter. This shooter does not make any points, so on the next shooter bet $25 odds, etc.
This is a good one guys, try it if you dare..